2026-27 season
Points projection
Where Leeds' season is heading on current form, worked out three ways — and openly explained.
Current form points projection
Points so far
9
5 played, 33 to go · 1.80 per game
Simple projection
68
Range 62–75 · current rate across 38 games
Adjusted projection
51
Range 46–56 · fixtures and home advantage allowed for
Simulated projection
Working it out…
Includes every league match up to and including Leeds 0-0 Crystal Palace, 20 Sept 26. Results last checked 6 Oct, 23:20.
This is an analytical projection, not a prediction of a guaranteed final position or points total. The ranges are a friendly ten percent either side of the figure — they are not statistical confidence intervals.
Points forecast through to match 38
Actual points so far, then the current-form and fixture-adjusted paths to the end of the season.
The simple line rises evenly from the current total to 68 points. The adjusted line adds each remaining fixture's expected points; its shaded range finishes at 46–56 points.
What's driving the projection?
Fixture difficulty so far
1.31
Average opponent rating, in points per game
Difficulty still to come
1.45
Average rating of the remaining opponents
Home and away left
16H · 17A
Remaining league fixtures
Expected points so far
6.6
Actually won: 9
Performance
137%
Points won against points expected
Weighting
75% pre-season
25% this season's evidence, after 5 games
Ten thousand simulated seasons
Running the simulations in your browser…
What these totals have been worth
| Projection | Points | Typical finish | Most common | Best | Worst | Seasons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simple projection | 68 | 4th | 4th | 3rd | 6th | 7 |
| Adjusted projection | 51 | 10th | 9th | 8th | 11th | 11 |
| Lower end of range | 46 | 12th | 13th | 8th | 15th | 17 |
| Upper end of range | 56 | 9th | 7th | 7th | 11th | 6 |
| Simulated median | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Simulated average | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Worked out from the 10 stored twenty-team, thirty-eight-game Premier League seasons — every figure calculated from those final tables, none of it typed in by hand.
Remaining fixtures
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Strength | Win | Draw | Loss | Expected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 26 | Arsenal | Away | 2.31 | 10% | 28% | 62% | 0.59 |
| 18 Oct 26 | Manchester United | Home | 1.89 | 24% | 35% | 41% | 1.08 |
| 25 Oct 26 | Sunderland | Away | 1.47 | 25% | 35% | 40% | 1.11 |
| 31 Oct 26 | Bournemouth | Away | 1.58 | 23% | 34% | 42% | 1.04 |
| 07 Nov 26 | Tottenham Hotspur | Home | 1.08 | 45% | 34% | 21% | 1.70 |
| 21 Nov 26 | Chelsea | Away | 1.39 | 27% | 35% | 37% | 1.17 |
| 28 Nov 26 | Coventry City | Home | 0.93 | 49% | 33% | 18% | 1.81 |
| 02 Dec 26 | Manchester City | Away | 2.08 | 14% | 30% | 56% | 0.71 |
| 05 Dec 26 | Ipswich Town | Home | 0.93 | 49% | 33% | 18% | 1.81 |
| 12 Dec 26 | Liverpool | Away | 1.61 | 22% | 34% | 43% | 1.01 |
| 19 Dec 26 | Fulham | Home | 1.39 | 37% | 35% | 28% | 1.46 |
| 26 Dec 26 | Aston Villa | Away | 1.77 | 19% | 33% | 48% | 0.90 |
| 30 Dec 26 | Hull City | Away | 0.93 | 39% | 35% | 26% | 1.52 |
| 02 Jan 27 | Everton | Home | 1.31 | 39% | 35% | 26% | 1.53 |
| 06 Jan 27 | Manchester City | Home | 2.08 | 20% | 34% | 46% | 0.95 |
| 16 Jan 27 | Tottenham Hotspur | Away | 1.08 | 35% | 35% | 29% | 1.41 |
| 23 Jan 27 | Chelsea | Home | 1.39 | 37% | 35% | 28% | 1.46 |
| 30 Jan 27 | Coventry City | Away | 0.93 | 39% | 35% | 26% | 1.52 |
| 06 Feb 27 | Bournemouth | Home | 1.58 | 32% | 35% | 32% | 1.32 |
| 10 Feb 27 | Everton | Away | 1.31 | 29% | 35% | 35% | 1.24 |
| 20 Feb 27 | Aston Villa | Home | 1.77 | 27% | 35% | 38% | 1.17 |
| 27 Feb 27 | Fulham | Away | 1.39 | 27% | 35% | 37% | 1.17 |
| 03 Mar 27 | Hull City | Home | 0.93 | 49% | 33% | 18% | 1.81 |
| 13 Mar 27 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Home | 1.42 | 36% | 35% | 28% | 1.44 |
| 20 Mar 27 | Newcastle United | Away | 1.32 | 29% | 35% | 36% | 1.22 |
| 10 Apr 27 | Nottingham Forest | Home | 1.17 | 43% | 34% | 23% | 1.63 |
| 17 Apr 27 | Brentford | Away | 1.44 | 26% | 35% | 39% | 1.13 |
| 24 Apr 27 | Liverpool | Home | 1.61 | 31% | 35% | 33% | 1.29 |
| 01 May 27 | Ipswich Town | Away | 0.93 | 39% | 35% | 26% | 1.52 |
| 08 May 27 | Arsenal | Home | 2.31 | 16% | 32% | 52% | 0.80 |
| 15 May 27 | Manchester United | Away | 1.89 | 17% | 32% | 51% | 0.82 |
| 23 May 27 | Sunderland | Home | 1.47 | 35% | 35% | 30% | 1.40 |
| 30 May 27 | Crystal Palace | Away | 1.22 | 32% | 35% | 33% | 1.30 |
How this projection works
Simple projection. Leeds' points per game so far, carried across all 38 league games. It stays on the page as a baseline, however good the other numbers look.
Club strength. Every club is given one rating before the season starts, taken from last season's points per game in the free public results archive. Clubs that came up are given the documented promoted-club baseline — the average points per game promoted clubs have managed across the archive — rather than a number picked out of the air. The rating is fixed for the season and does not chase the current table.
Match probabilities. Each fixture gets a win, draw and loss chance from the two ratings plus one consistent home advantage, always adding up to 100%. Expected points are (win × 3) + draw.
Adjusted projection. Leeds' own rating is blended: mostly pre-season early on, moving steadily towards this season's actual evidence as games are played. Expected points from every remaining fixture are then added to the points already won.
Simulation. Every remaining fixture is played out at random against its own probabilities, ten thousand times over, entirely in your browser.
Limitations. Ratings rest on last season only and cannot know about injuries, new signings or a change of manager. Early in a season a handful of games is thin evidence. The archive covers the Premier League from 2010-11, so the historical comparison uses those seasons. No figure here is invented: if something is missing, it is shown as missing.